Explanation

An explanation is a conjecture that constrains what could happen otherwise.

A conjecture is a proposed account that may be tested, criticized, and replaced.

This definition distinguishes explanation from description, correlation, prediction, and performance.

Note: This definition does not rank explanations by depth or completeness; it only distinguishes explanatory structure from non-explanatory claims.

Purpose

The purpose of an explanation is to support counterfactual reasoning by constraining alternative outcomes.

Properties

An explanation:

• identifies what is happening
• specifies why it happens
• constrains what could happen instead

The last property is decisive. It yields the qualifying test: an explanation must make a counterfactual claim.

In other words: If the explanation were different, the outcome would be different.

Distinctions

• A description reports what happened: X occurred.
• A correlation reports regularity: When X occurs, Y tends to occur.
• A prediction reports an anticipated outcome: Given certain conditions, Y will occur.
• A performance demonstrates successful behavior: The system produces the correct result.
• A counterfactual asserts: Had X been different, Y would have been different.

Only counterfactuals constrain alternative possibilities.

Example

You are interested in someone who hasn't been calling you.

Description: They have not called in several days.

This reports what happened. It contains no explanation.

Correlation: When someone is interested, they usually call or text frequently.

This identifies a regularity and allows many incompatible possibilities such as loss of interest, illness, or stress.

Correlation narrows the space of possibilities but does not identify which constraint is operative.

Prediction: Given the lack of contact, they will probably not call soon.

This anticipates an outcome. It may be useful. It may be accurate. It does not explain the lack of contact or what would change it.

Performance: You send a message that prompts a brief reply.

This demonstrates successful behavior. It achieves an outcome. It does not explain the situation or whether the same action would work again.

Explanation: They are not calling because they have decided not to pursue the relationship further.

This:

• identifies a specific constraint (intentional disengagement)
• rules out alternatives (e.g. illness, stress)
• supports counterfactuals

Counterfactual claims are possible: Had they still been interested, they would have reached out.

The ability to make a counterfactual claim is what makes the statement explanatory.

2025-09-29 Aaron Brinton
2026-01-06 structural updates