Knowledge

Knowledge is a set of explanatory conjectures that have survived sustained error correction.

This definition distinguishes knowledge from belief, information, prediction, performance, and stored representations.

Note: 'Sustained’ does not denote a fixed duration, quantity of evidence, or level of confidence. It denotes exposure to ongoing, non-trivial attempts at criticism across relevant contexts. There is no point at which a conjecture becomes immune to further criticism.

Purpose

The purpose of knowledge is to enable reliable reasoning and action across counterfactual situations.

Properties

Knowledge:

• consists of explanatory conjectures
• is fallible and open to criticism
• survives error correction
• supports counterfactual reasoning

Knowledge does NOT:

• require certainty
• rely on justification, authority, or consensus

A claim that cannot be wrong cannot be knowledge.

A claim that has not survived criticism does not have epistemic status.

Creation

The stages of knowledge creation are:

1. Conjecture

A conjecture is a proposed explanation offered without guarantee and without appeal to authority.

Conjectures may arise from creativity, intuition, analogy, or accident. Their origin is irrelevant to their epistemic status.

An explanation that cannot be wrong is dogma, not conjecture.

2. Criticism

Criticism is the process of actively attempting to expose errors in a conjecture.

It is an attempt to determine whether the explanation survives contact with reality, including whether it supports the relevant counterfactuals. Criticism is not disagreement, skepticism, or disbelief.

A conjecture that avoids criticism does not become safer. It becomes epistemically inert.

3. Error Removal

Error removal occurs when a conjecture fails criticism and is revised, restricted, or abandoned.

It improves knowledge by eliminating what does not work, not by confirming what does.

What survives this process is retained provisionally. It can never be guaranteed to be true; it is only considered better than its predecessors.

Distinctions

• Information is structured data. It may be stored (persisted without any knower).
• Belief is a psychological state. It may be confident and false.
• Prediction anticipates outcomes. It may succeed without understanding.
• Performance demonstrates competence. It may succeed without explanation.
• Knowledge consists of explanations that have survived criticism.

Knowledge must be earned through criticism.

Explanation

Explanation is necessary but not sufficient for knowledge.

An explanation becomes knowledge when:

• it survives attempts to refute it
• competing explanations fail
• errors are identified and removed

A plausible explanation that has not faced criticism is a conjecture, not knowledge.

Justified True Belief

Justified true belief remains the dominant academic account of knowledge. This conflicts directly with an explanatory account of knowledge and requires explicit rejection.

Justification explains belief states (psychology), not reality (explanation), and does not constrain counterfactuals. For this reason, it cannot ground epistemic status.

Example

Building on the explanation example:

Explanation: They are not calling because they have decided not to pursue the relationship further.

At this stage, this is an explanation but not yet knowledge.

This explanation is tested, such as:

• you learn the person was hospitalized
• you learn the person misinterpreted a prior message
• contact was resumed

In each case, the explanation is tested against reality and may fail.

Or, time passes and no alternative explanation survives. The explanation has survived criticism.

It is not certain, but it is knowledge.

2025-09-29 Aaron Brinton
2025-10-04 added trilemma reference
2026-01-06 structural updates; extracted JTB